Published on 14/03/2025
By Wakameli Anthony
The recently concluded Kawempe North by-election once again raised critical questions about the ruling National Resistance Movement’s (NRM) electoral strategy in urban areas, particularly in Kampala, where the opposition is predominant. The results declared on Thursday night showed a party struggling to make inroads despite heavy investments in ghetto structures and youth mobilization efforts.
In the 2021 elections, the late Hon. Muhammad Ssegirinya secured a landslide victory with 41,197 votes, while the NRM candidate, Tom Kasenge, managed only 8,000 votes. Fast forward to 2025, and the numbers remain virtually unchanged as NRM’s candidate, Faridah Nambi, again polled 8,000 votes, while the National Unity Platform’s (NUP) Elias Luyimbazi Nalukoola won with 17,764 votes.
For a party that has heavily invested in mobilization, especially for this by-election, the stagnation in numbers is concerning. Nambi, a veteran politician, was controversially handed the NRM flag by the party’s electoral commission chairman, Dr. Tanga Odoi, in a move many viewed as biased. The fact that she was already the NRM Woman MP flag bearer for Kampala further fueled discontent.
The Ghetto Youth Factor: A Failed Investment?
President Museveni has poured billions of shillings into Kampala’s ghetto youth structures, with the promise of shifting urban support towards the ruling party. If these structures were truly effective, why did the NRM fail to increase its vote count?
The individuals and camps behind the ghetto structures have consistently claimed and convinced Mr Museveni to have won over tens of thousands of youth, yet not even 20,000 of them showed up to vote for NRM’s candidate.
This raises serious concerns:
- Are the ghetto structures actually benefiting NUP rather than NRM?
- Are the youth mobilizers taking the money but voting for the opposition?
- Has NRM’s investment in Kampala’s ghetto politics been counterproductive?
NRM’s Internal Weaknesses
Beyond unpredictable voter behavior, the NRM Secretariat’s alleged disorganization also played a major role in this shameful defeat. The mobilization efforts applied seem outdated, an indication that the party’s Director of Mobilization, Hon. Rosemary Sseninde, has failed to inspire grassroots support.
Additionally, in all this, the Party Secretary General, Richard Todwong, appears sidelined, as Prime Minister Robinah Nabbanja often takes the lead in party mobilization, an approach that, while energetic, lacks long-term strategic impact.
NRM’s media strategy also seems to be stuck in the past. The party still relies heavily on television, ignoring the digital revolution that has given opposition groups like NUP a powerful online presence. Hon. Emmanuel Dombo, who heads NRM’s communication, must adapt to new-age media and digital political strategies or risk further losses.
On the contrary, NUP has mastered the art of political storytelling. They play the victim, paint NRM as oppressive, and use this as a rallying cry for their supporters. The by-election was no different NUP portrayed itself as under siege, and the strategy worked.
The Security Factor: Was JATT’s Presence necessary?
A crucial question that NRM must answer is: who ordered the deployment of the Joint Anti-Terrorism Taskforce (JAT) in Kawempe? Security presence often backfires in urban politics, and in this case, it likely helped NUP by reinforcing its narrative of state intimidation.
Despite having injected over UGX 7 billion in Kampala ghetto projects, Museveni may have inadvertently strengthened NUP’s grassroots networks. Many of the so-called NRM “foot soldiers” have now been financially empowered, but are they secretly working for the opposition?
Lessons for 2026
With the 2026 elections approaching, the NRM must reevaluate its urban strategy. The by-election results show that merely pouring money into ghetto projects is not enough; there must be genuine engagement and strategic messaging.
Key areas to focus on:
- Reassess Ghetto Mobilization: Are the current leaders truly pro-NRM, or are they opportunists?
- Embrace Digital Political Strategies: AI, social media, and grassroots digital campaigns must be prioritized.
- Deploy the Right Mobilizers: Why was Hajjat Hadijah Namyalo, who has a strong following, absent from Kawempe? She resonates with both opposition and ruling party supporters, yet NRM keeps sidelining her.
- Understand Opposition Tactics: NUP thrives on mobilizing sympathy votes—how can NRM counter this without relying solely on state institutions?
- Invest in Fresh Faces: Recycling the same mobilizers and candidates has failed; new, relatable leaders are needed.
If NRM fails to address these concerns, 2026 will be an even bigger embarrassment in urban areas. The wave that swept Buganda in 2021 could return even stronger, fueled by a now-empowered opposition base.
Meanwhile, congratulations to Hon. Nalukoola; go and enjoy the spoils of victory. But as for NRM, you must urgently rethink your game plan or prepare for more humiliations ahead. For God and My Country.
The writer is a Political Analyst
